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Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.2 percent, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2018, following growth of 0.1 percent in the third quarter. Incoming data have continued to be weak, in particular in the manufacturing sector, reflecting the slowdown in external demand compounded by some country and sector-specific factors. The impact of these factors is turning out to be somewhat longer-lasting, which suggests that the near-term growth outlook will be weaker than previously anticipated. Looking ahead, the effect of these adverse factors is expected to unwind. The euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favorable financing conditions, further employment gains and rising wages, and the ongoing – albeit somewhat slower – expansion in global activity.

This assessment is broadly reflected in the March 2019 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, These projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.1 percent in 2019, 1.6 percent in 2020 and 1.5 percent in 2021, Compared with the December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised down substantially in 2019 and slightly in 2020, The risks surrounding the euro area new york giants cufflinks and tie bar gift set growth outlook are still tilted to the downside, on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets..

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.5 percent in February 2019, after 1.4 percent in January, reflecting somewhat higher energy and food price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to remain at around current levels before declining toward the end of year. Measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, but labor cost pressures have strengthened and broadened amid high levels of capacity utilization and tightening labor markets. Looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to increase over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and rising wage growth.

This assessment is also broadly reflected in the March 2019 new york giants cufflinks and tie bar gift set ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 1.2 percent in 2019, 1.5 percent in 2020 and 1.6 percent in 2021, Compared with the December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised down across the projection horizon, reflecting in particular the more subdued near-term growth outlook, Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) growth decreased to 3.8 percent in January 2019, from 4.1 percent in December 2018, M3 growth continues to be backed by bank credit creation, notwithstanding a recent moderation in credit dynamics, The narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained the main contributor to broad money growth..

The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations declined to 3.3 percent in January 2019, from 3.9 percent in December 2018, reflecting a base effect but also, in some countries, the typical lagged reaction to the slowdown in economic activity, while the annual growth rate of loans to households remained at 3.2 percent. Borrowing conditions for firms and households are still favorable, as the monetary policy measures put in place since June 2014 continue to support access to financing, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises. The policy measures decided today, and in particular the new series of TLTROs, will help to ensure that bank lending conditions remain favorable going forward.

To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term, In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute more decisively to raising the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities, The implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost euro area productivity and growth potential, This is particularly important in view of the overall limited implementation of the 2018 country-specific recommendations, as recently communicated by the European Commission, Regarding fiscal policies, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the operation of automatic stabilizers are providing support to economic activity, At the same time, countries where government debt is high need to continue rebuilding fiscal buffers, All countries should continue to increase efforts to achieve a more growth-friendly new york giants cufflinks and tie bar gift set composition of public finances, Likewise, the transparent and consistent implementation of the European Union’s fiscal and economic governance framework over time and across countries remains essential to bolster the resilience of the euro area economy, Improving the functioning of Economic and Monetary Union remains a priority, The Governing Council welcomes the ongoing work and urges further specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union..

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to strong labor market conditions despite signs that job growth was slowing. While other data on Thursday showed an improvement in worker productivity in the fourth quarter, the trend remained sluggish. Labor costs continued to rise at a moderate pace in the last quarter, suggesting benign inflation pressures that support the Federal Reserve’s “patient” stance towards further interest rate increases this year.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ended March 2, the Labor Department said, Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would be unchanged at 225,000 in the latest week, The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better new york giants cufflinks and tie bar gift set measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,000 to 226,250 last week, the lowest level in a month, The claims data has no bearing on February’s employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period, There are indications that employment growth is slowing after last year’s robust gains, Part of the moderation in job growth is because of a shortage of workers..

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